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Month: February 2021

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Christians and Conspiracies

February 5, 2021 | pride, social issues, theology | No Comments

Hands on ears

“You can’t handle the truth!”

That classic line from Colonel Jessup in the witness stand became a waving flag for many. It is so enticing to think we own the truth, and that those who can’t “handle” it are naïve, weak, or cowardly. Delivered to perfection by Jack Nicholson, Jessup hammered a wedge between truth and fantasy, and of course we all know which side we’re on, don’t we?

What most overlook is that Colonel Jessup was fooling himself. Yes, the character was a courageous leader with a distinguished career, but he was also a vindictive bully who fought to suppress the truth about his own culpability in the death of private Santiago.

The fall of humanity commenced with an assault on truth, and it sometimes feels the battle against truth has never been more relentless. Among followers of Christ, this should be obvious. We witness in the secular culture a frequent denial of reality: whether the humanity of the unborn, the immutability of sex, or the facts of history. Our reaction might range from despair to compassion to mockery, but too often we forget these are lost souls under the dominion of dark spiritual forces. So, what’s our excuse?

Why do so many of our brothers and sisters in the Lord commit the same denial of reality they mock in unbelievers?

Christians and conspiracy theories

A disturbing number of professing Christians are entranced by dark QAnon conspiracies, anti-vaccination hysteria, unverifiable claims of stolen elections, or bizarre fantasies regarding the nefarious machinations of Bill Gates, like one recent commenter at The Gospel Coalition:

Note: James Corbett is a well-known internet provocateur who never met a conspiracy he couldn’t profit from.

Much digital “ink” has been spilt over the last 12 months on Christians and conspiracies, though it is difficult to tell whether this has had much impact. Those most inclined toward conspiracy theories are the least likely to benefit from the articles, or might read them only for the purpose of arguing. The articles have mostly focused on refuting the specific conspiracies or warning of the moral implications. Both are on point and send a valuable message. They might help protect fence-sitters from plunging into the abyss. Another category of articles will tell you how to avoid them. The problem is that people don’t care. Explaining to a conspiracy hound how to tell truth from fiction is like teaching my dog how to eat healthy: he doesn’t see the point, he’s sure it doesn’t apply to him, and the conversation’s going nowhere. [“Just give me what you’re having, and I’m good” – the Spaniel]

To make a real impact on true believers in false beliefs, we must look beyond what they believe to why they believe. Not every popular myth really qualifies as a conspiracy theory in a literal sense. For our purposes here, the distinction is unimportant.

The Gospels report that after the resurrection of Christ, the priests conspired with the Roman guards to report that the disciples stole the body (Matthew 28:11-15). So, conspiracy theories have been around as long as conspiracies, and in this case we have a twofer – a real conspiracy by the priests and guards to spread a false conspiracy theory concerning the disciples. But this historical example exhibits elements true for the 21st century as well as the first. Conspiracy theories don’t pop out of nowhere. Often, they are instigated by bad actors with ulterior motives who know they are untrue.

Why they resonate with us

This problem is far more nuanced than simply dismissing conspiracy theorists as gullible and uncritical thinkers. Indeed, many are. But forces in our own mental programming and our environment strongly drive us in that direction.

Humans are by nature curious. God designed us to seek understanding and explanations. With diligent effort, a broad fund of knowledge, and the wisdom of experience this often works. The blessing of a curious nature led to the spectacular technological progress of the last few centuries. We don’t just want to know how nature works. We want to understand how people work, why things happen, and why people do the things that they do. Serious sociology and psychology – there’s a lot of unserious work in both fields – are responsible and efficient means to satisfy this impulse. So are forensics and fields of legal investigation. Conspiracy theories, on the other hand, are a cheat – a short cut into a blind alley. They are cocaine for the curious mind. One hundred hours of watching YouTube videos is no substitute for years of education but can seem very persuasive and succeed in creating an unwarranted sense of certainty. They might be wildly off-base, but for the purpose of “solving” the puzzle are equally effective, and sometimes even more emotionally gratifying than the boring truth (for reasons considered below).

A second force is almost certainly the anchoring effect of entertainment. Over our lifetimes we consume thousands of hours of film and television drama, and more often than not some dark conspiracy is underfoot. If we pause to reflect (thinking with Kahnemen’s System 2), we might admit that these are rare in real life, but we do most of our thinking in System 1, which is heuristically driven and powerfully influenced by non-rational factors such as recency and ease of recall. So if day after day, week after week, year after year we are fed conspiracy stories, they are bound to seem more plausible. How do you think Hollywood changed public attitudes toward homosexuality in such a short period of time?

The third factor is the unprecedented availability of misinformation and disinformation enabled by the Internet. Old barriers to publication and distribution have been eliminated and everyone now has a platform. Engineers at Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram developed systems that focus and amplify the impact of misinformation, though that was not their intent. We naturally want our opinions confirmed, and complicated algorithms are specifically designed to keep you engaged by telling you more and more of what you want to hear, while you are guaranteed to be surrounded and supported by like-minded company.

A fourth issue that must be acknowledged is that conspiracies really do happen. True conspiracies are rare. Many authors have explained why they are rare, seldom succeed, and how to spot the fake ones. Nonetheless, the simple fact that some have happened affords the true believer “moral license” to believe in one or more that are purely fictitious.

Sinful disposition

Unfortunately, not all internal factors inclining us toward conspiracy theories are so innocent and defensible. There is a dark element to many that appeals directly to the vilest of human impulses.

Conspiracy theories feed our ego. The sense of superiority that comes from being “in the know” can be intoxicating. Like Neo in “The Matrix”, proponents imagine themselves escaping the blinders of society by taking “the red pill” and becoming the hero of their own pathetic little fiction. The act of embracing a lie to become something greater was the offense of Adam, and in this we are truly his offspring.

Some anti-vaccination activists focus on past use of one or two fetal cell lines in vaccine development. (The morality of this has been fully addressed by a number of authorities including CMDA). There’s no clear boundary between having a sensitive conscience and overt moral grandstanding, and the feeling I get when engaging some of these activists is that they know they are morally superior to other Christians, and that they want everyone else to know it as well.

Conspiracy theories malign the innocent and justify our prejudice. Among all conspiracy theories, the bloodiest, most contemptible, and most enduring must be those surrounding the children of Abraham. From being blamed for the bubonic plague in the 14th century, to accusations of conspiring with the enemy in late 19th century France, to the wildest fantasies of an uber-rich and uber-powerful global cabal, the Jews have suffered the most from conspiracy thinking, and experienced the deadly power of lies with six million deaths under the Third Reich.

Anti-semitism appeals to some of the worst human impulses – to feel superior to those who are different, to justify our prejudices, to rationalize our own conduct, and to absolve us of personal responsibility for failure. Hitler rose to power blaming the Jews for every real and perceived shortcoming of early 20th century Germany, including their loss in World War I. A newly elected congresswomen from Georgia blamed the 2018 California wildfires on Jewish space lasers – rhetoric described as “inflammatory” by the Wall Street Journal in an apparently unintentional act of punnery.

Antivaccination activists presume almost all of the millions of worldwide physicians who both prescribe and use them are either stupid or malevolent. Righteous people do not believe such things.

Willful deception

For many, many reasons we are predisposed toward embracing conspiracy theories. We are the demand side of the marketplace. On the supply side is a vast industry of private and state actors competing for profit, fame, or influence and eager to provide.

There are bad actors out there with an intent to deceive and the means to do so.

The antivaccination movement traces its roots to the work of the former doctor Andrew Wakefield, who published a paper in Lancet in 1999 claiming to have found a connection between the MMR vaccine and autism. Later investigation established that the research was fraudulent, that Wakefield had to have known, and that he was motivated financially by the promise of riches from the plaintiff’s bar. Provocateur and shyster Alex Jones rose to notoriety after 9/11 peddling the crackpot notion that the terrorist attack was an inside job executed by the highest levels of government. He is now being sued – one hopes successfully – by the parents of schoolchildren murdered at Sandy Hook, after Jones carried on for months arguing the tragedy was a hoax and the bereaved parents were merely actors. Whether Jones believes such nonsense I neither know nor care, but peddling it to a gullible and willing audience has made him both rich and famous.

It’s spiritual warfare that must be fought with spiritual weapons. Jesus didn’t cast out demons with superior arguments.

Emerging evidence over the last several years has pointed to the involvement of hostile foreign states in manipulating American public opinion. The communist regime of China now exercises near-veto power over American film production, where profits speak louder than principles. (US social media are blocked in China, and the local versions are tightly controlled. They’re not stupid.) Russian activity on social media in the US and other western democracies is well documented. Far from the simplistic narrative that they attempted to promote the election of Donald Trump, Russian-promoted social media plays to all extremes of the political spectrum. Their presumed intent has been to promote civil strife, discord, resentment, and polarization. They must be thrilled with their apparent success.

Christians who believe Scripture must take seriously another source of deception – the spiritual realm. The spiritual entities at war against God are consistently characterized as both attractive and deceiving. If we believe Scripture, then the battle for truth is much more than an argument with our opponent. It’s spiritual warfare that must be fought with spiritual weapons. Jesus didn’t cast out demons with superior arguments or by instructing their victims in critical thinking.

“Put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil. For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places.”

Ephesians 6:11-12, NKJV

It requires much less effort to assert a claim than refute it.

Conspiracy fans and anti-vaxxers never really engage in serious research, though they routinely claim to have done so. “Research”, in this instance, amounts to watching hours of video and consuming large doses of polemics manufactured for and posted to fringe websites. Those never make one an expert, but can make someone feel like one. A little knowledge can seem like a lot when you have no idea how much you don’t know. It takes no real effort to blindly accept a list of 20 or 30 assertions and repost them on Facebook, as I’ve seen so much of in the last year. It takes an extraordinary amount of effort to track down the source of each claim and spot the error. Organizations such as the Christian Medical & Dental Associations frequently post careful rebuttals on vaccination myths and health misinformation, but it’s a whack-a-mole game with newer and more ridiculous claims surfacing with depressing regularity.

Consequences

Succumbing to such deceptions exacts a great cost for both individuals and the Church at large. They corrupt our character, demolish our credibility, lead us to sin against others, and place us in alignment with malevolent spiritual forces.

Corrupted character.

Conspiratorial thinking thrives on pride, and nourishes it in turn. It takes a considerable amount of arrogance to assert superior insight over legitimate experts in a field. I have, in turn, been accused of arrogance in dismissing their arguments. Pride exists within all of us to one degree or another, so I stand guilty as charged. However, in this instance humility is submitting to the judgment of an overwhelming consensus of experts, not standing in opposition to them. Genuine love and yearning for the truth, on the other hand, is a fruit of the Spirit (Ephesians 5:9).

Lost credibility.

When either individuals or large sections of the Body become known for embracing and promoting disinformation, we compromise our credibility on the more important issues. The secular community will reason that if we’re crazy on one score, the rest must be part of the package. We have a duty to them, and a responsibility to God, to preserve our reputation. (1 Peter 2:12)

Slander.

Hurling false accusations against other groups or accusations is slander, and an explicit violation of the ninth commandment. Christians should never be known for such conduct, nor for tolerating it in their midst.

We become pawns to the Father of Lies

Scripture is abundantly clear that there is more to reality than what we perceive with our senses, and that a spiritual war has been raging since Creation. There is no DMZ in this conflict.

“You are of your father the devil, and the desires of your father you want to do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and does not stand in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaks a lie, he speaks from his own resources, for he is a liar and the father of it.”

John 8:44 NKJV

If we are not on the side of truth, then we are on the side of the enemy. This belief, though, can become deadly when we begin to think we own the truth. The only path along this narrow ledge is to admit our personal limitations and exhibit humble submission toward those in authority – in this case, meaning those most qualified in the subject. We shouldn’t rely on pastors in matters of science, we shouldn’t rely on scientists in matters of theology, and we should seek health advice from our doctor, not the internet.

For those passionate about the truth, the ongoing struggle against misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy thinking can be daunting. The first concluding principle should be to check yourself. (Matthew 7:5) The second is that yes, we are our brother’s keeper. How the Church should deal with conspiracy theorists is a sensitive and complex matter, but it cannot remain faithful to Christ and passive in this regard. We must understand why people are drawn to them, so that the root causes might be addressed. Ultimately this is a spiritual battle, but thankfully we are not unarmed against such a challenge (Ephesians 6:10-18).

COVID-19: Is the end in sight?

February 4, 2021 | health | No Comments

This could be the good news event of the year. Why is no one talking about it? COVID infections in the US have been plunging over the last 3 weeks.

2020: Goodbye and good riddance.

The world is exhausted. Over a year after the SARS-Coronavirus-2 pandemic escaped China and infected the world, we are lonely, frustrated, divided, discouraged, and downright irritable. According to the prevailing narrative, the epidemic is not under control. In one of the singular triumphs of the administrations of “bad boys” Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former US President Donald Trump, multiple vaccines have been developed, approved, manufactured, and released to the public. Yet the vaccine rollouts have been fraught with multiple allegations of inequity and inefficiency – some valid, some perhaps less so. The lockdowns, school closures, and restrictions threaten to continue on until – perhaps sometime in the summer – enough people have been vaccinated to achieve “herd immunity”.

What is herd immunity? How will we know when we’ve reached it?

Well, for starters, herd immunity is not a number. Early in the epidemic the opinion emerged that herd immunity from COVID would require infection or inoculation of 70% of the population, and that number has stuck like old gum to a school desk. But no nobody really knew or could know. Herd immunity is not a number but a state. “Herd immunity” – as defined by the Journal of the American Medical Association – “refers to the protection of susceptible individuals against an infection when a sufficiently large proportion of immune individuals exist in a population. In other words, herd immunity is the inability of infected individuals to propagate an epidemic outbreak due to lack of contact with sufficient numbers of susceptible individuals. It stems from the individual immunity that may be gained through natural infection or through vaccination.” (I explained how this worked last May in “Covidistan, Coronacita, and Carnivals”).

That might require 70% of the population, or 99%, or something much lower. The only certain way of knowing we’ve achieved herd immunity is when it happens. What might that look like? We’ve achieved it when local transmission rates are low, and either stable or dropping in the absence of non-pharmacologic intervention (i.e., masks and social distancing).

COVID cases are plummeting nationwide.

New cases in the US peaked at 308,182 on January 8 but by January 31 had plunged almost two-thirds, down to 110, 906. The more statistically meaningful rolling average, which smooths out reporting fluctuations, peaked on January 11 and has dropped almost 50% in three weeks. The downslope, indicating the rapidity of decline, is dramatically steeper than the drop-off after the two earlier peaks. This is even more significant considering the fact that the earlier two declines were achieved by lockdowns and other interventions, while the present decline is occurring in an environment of loosening restrictions across most locales.

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The most reliable measure – nationwide hospitalizations – confirms this trend. Since patients typically do not require hospitalization until several days after onset, this tends to be a lagging indicator. Hospitalizations nationwide peaked on January 6 at 132,474 and have dropped every consecutive day since January 12. As of February 3 hospital inpatients were down to 91,440, a 30% drop. The rate of decline, averaging 1.5%/day, is far more rapid than similar declines in the late spring and late summer.

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A current chart from the COVID tracking project shows declining hospitalizations in 48 of the 50 US States. (In the two states showing an increase – VT and MT – the actual numbers are very, very low).

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Why are cases dropping so rapidly? The decline in late spring occurred when almost the entire nation was shut down. The decline in late summer coincided with reimposition of tighter restrictions in some of the hardest hit regions. By early January some hospitals seemed to be on the brink of overload and local restrictions were reimposed, mostly in California and New York. But that cannot account for a nationwide phenomenon. The hypothesis that we are fast approaching herd immunity, as a result of widespread infection now supplemented by vaccination, has considerable merit.

Officially, about 8% of the US population has had COVID. Another 8% have now been vaccinated. Assuming the groups do not overlap – they probably do – only 16% of the population is immune. That’s a long way from the “magic” 70% or any other conservative estimate. So how could it even be possible? Two factors come into play. First, the real number of US cases is certainly much higher than 8%. The CDC estimated that by the end of December, 83.1 million US citizens had been infected. We added an additional 7 million official cases in January. If the undocumented cases in January were anywhere close to the same level as last year, we are now well over 100 million cases, or one-third of the US population. If we then add in the vaccinated group, about 40% of the US population should now be immune according to the CDC data and methodology.

But wait! There’s more!

The operating assumption since the onset of the pandemic was that no one was immune to COVID-19 and thus everyone was vulnerable. It was indeed a new virus. This Boolean distinction assumed either you were immune or you weren’t, and there was no middle ground. However, we have had experience with other coronaviruses, and evidence continued to accumulate over the course of 2020 of partial immunity against SARS-Cov-2 thanks to a component of our immune system known as T-cells. As many as 50% of persons tested had T-cells that could recognize and respond to the COVID virus before the epidemic even began. The scientific community has been circumspect regarding the significance of this fact, uncertain whether or not it conferred any protection in those whose T-cells could respond to SARS-Cov2. Last summer, internationally respected epidemiologists speculated that because of pre-existing resistance, herd immunity could kick in with an infection rate possibly as low as 20%. The most optimistic scenario did not pan out, but it remains too soon to rule out any number between the current infection rate of about 30% and the ultimate limit of 100%.

Our experience over the last year strongly suggests some people are resistant to COVID. There are many, many cases of individuals exposed to the virus who never tested positive, including my own family. My son turned positive in early October, having certainly acquired it from school. My wife and I never became symptomatic, and I voluntarily had myself PCR-tested a week later. I remained negative. My experience has been the experience of most. A large meta-analysis published by JAMA in December found that the “secondary attack rate” in multi-person households was a hair under 17%. This means that 83% of people living with an infected patient did not contract the illness. This is quite unexpected for something as infectious as COVID, but not at all surprising if some are naturally resistant. I quite happily signed up for the Pfizer vaccine when it became available, but thought it interesting that I had already been exposed to a symptomatic household member and did not contract it. Was it a case of pre-existing resistance? I’ll never know.

It’s not over yet, but….

The trend is definitely encouraging. Would there be a fourth wave if we reopened now? Maybe, maybe not, but if there were, I believe it would be modest. It’s debatable how much impact public policy measures are having on transmission since most transmission occurs in private gatherings. Probably some. (Some areas have been more aggressive than others in suppressing the spread; the same areas remain most vulnerable to a resurgence.) But the massive nationwide breakout of infections that began in October was exactly what mask ordinances and bar closures were supposed to prevent. Perhaps without such measures the hospitals really would have been overwhelmed. That’s entirely possible; we’ll never know. Most in the media – at least those who’ve even noticed – are sticking with the narrative that it’s all driven by behavior, and numbers are only dropping now because people are finally “scared”. That’s a valid hypothesis; I simply see no evidence for it.

I am not making predictions or scientific pronouncements, simply calling attention to an encouraging trend. There is good reason now for hope and encouragement. More will perish before this is over, and it may never completely go away. Please get your vaccination as soon as you are able. And please be patient and respectful toward one another.

“Therefore, as the elect of God, holy and beloved, put on tender mercies, kindness, humility, meekness, longsuffering; bearing with one another, and forgiving one another, if anyone has a complaint against another; even as Christ forgave you, so you also must do.”

Colossians 3:12-13, NKJV